Each camera brand has different goals for the year, and in most cases that is some sort of equivalent to "keep up with the Joneses". Canon and Nikon need to broaden their mirrorless lineups to better match Sony, for instance (both in cameras and lenses).
To understand 2022 (or any other future year) you have to understand 2021 (or any other past year).
So let's start with this: what were the big happenings of 2021?
- Stacked flagships. Canon, Nikon, and Sony all put out a flagship mirrorless camera that uses a stacked image sensor.
- Updates to Medium Format. Fujifilm pushed both their 50 and 100 models forward, particularly as viable full frame alternatives.
- Legacy goes both ways. Nikon went retro, Fujifilm went modern.
Other than those bigger picture things, everything else was basically model iteration. Even something like the Sony ZV-E10 was just an APS-C iteration of the previous vlogging camera idea that had already been done in 1" and full frame.
So what are the big picture things that will happen this year?
- APS-C gets a flagship. Fujifilm for sure, Canon, Nikon, and Sony possibly.
- Significant model refreshes. Canon needs this with the R/RP models, Nikon needs this with the Z6/Z7 twins, Sony needs it with the A6### models.
- Megapixels march onward. 33mp+ on APS-C, 60mp+ on full frame (even Leica is going to play this game).
- Goodbyes happen. Canon M is past retirement age, but it might not be the only game in town that decides to start closing up shop.
Plus, as usual, regular iteration has to continue, as well.
When looked at this way, you'll see why I'm saying that Switching is a thing of the past. It's not like we're getting a new format (m4/3, APS-C, full frame, medium format) or even a new line of cameras (Fujifilm's flagship will be a "2" model). Short of a major new technology idea surfacing, we're in a period where everyone is mostly trying to fill out and push forward their current products.
It's even possible to guess that "stacked" is coming for things other than flagships (probably more a 2023/24 thing). Another future thing that's related—driven by the ongoing parts supply chain problems—is model simplification by removing parts. But again, that's probably more a 2023/24 thing, as 2022 models would have been in development prior to the supply chain issues being clear.
