Fujifilm X100VI Orders Will Be Over 1/3 All Compacts Sold

Yeah, just like all the other click baiting headlines regarding Fujifilm X100VI orders, I made you look ;~).

The Internet Amplification Effect is going on here. Yes, Fujifilm themselves have said that the number of pre-orders surprised them. Privately, one manager told me pre-orders will significantly exceed what they're ready to produce (which is 15k/mo, which is itself double what the X100V was produced at). From the dealers I've talked to, they all say they've taken more X100VI pre-orders than they expected. 

However, the exaggeration that's running around in some fora and some sites is problematic. For example: "Chinese Weibo account Camerabeta reports that pre-orders for the Fujifilm X100VI in China have exceeded 480,000." [source:fujirumors]. Some sites say 580,000 or even 650,000 orders have been taken. That sounds to me more like some automated ordering robots kept trying to get into queues and reserve a product than a sudden larger rush to order product in a country currently having an economic slowdown. The source most often quoted is referred to in translation as a "lottery", so I suspect that China has now discovered the "get in as many queues in as many ways for pre-orders and then cancel everything else when you finally get one."

For what it's worth, if you want a camera sooner, you probably want to get in an all-black queue, not the panda (silver over black) queue. It's unknown what Fujifilm thought the balance between models would be, but I keep seeing information that suggests that the public wants four Pandas for every Allblack. 

Either way, it's likely that Fujifilm hasn't solved their "back-ordered" problem for this popular compact camera model line. Moreover, it probably can't if demand is as high as some say it is. Their image sensor order would have been predicated on that 15k/mo plan (and however they thought that might taper). Getting more 40mp sensors wouldn't happen very fast, and has implications on the other cameras that use it (X-T5, X-H2) or are likely to be launched with it (X-Pro4). So I expect the X100VI to be one of those few Internet-hyped products that does stay in a back-ordered status for awhile, maybe a long while (Sony A9 Mark III eat your heart out ;~).

As to why the X100VI might be very popular, I don't I think I have to state it, but I will ;~): 

  1. The previous model was so popular it was always out of stock. The new model is a clear upgrade.
  2. The market for high-performance compacts never went away, but competitive products of that type did.
  3. 40mp APS-C is a new number to equal/beat. 
  4. Remember the byThom XAD? Technically, the X100VI is about the closest thing to that, though much more feature laden and with (mostly) hidden complexity. I first outlined how a high-end digital compact needed to be designed back in 2006, and at present, only the Ricoh GR and Fujifilm X100 models really can say they're in that ballpark. Simply put: certain demands don't go away over time.09

I guess those things don't matter enough to solve. Maybe in the X100LXIV.ji9  

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