Cameras and Photography Explained

News will continue in weekly digests for the time being, though I might slip to bi-weekly for a bit as I work on all my other projects. More information about a possible transition in how I handle things is here.

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LEDE ON

Now that the camera makers have finally figured out there really was a demand for compact cameras (CIPA's numbers show the rise in shipments pretty clearly), they now need to figure out what to do about that. The decline during the teens in overall camera sales (extended temporarily by the pandemic) had everyone shutting down factories, consolidating facilities, and writing off assets. To the point where today every maker is pretty lean in terms of their ability to ramp up more models and more shipments. Even market leader Canon shut down a key factory in China and huddled all their wagons in Japan. Now, it appears, they're ready to dip their toes back in the compact pool water. But rather than open up new facilities, Canon says they're exploring going factoryless (facfree?) and have started looking have others build their low-end products. Why? It's all about who's investing the money. Rather than invest it themselves and risk some day having to write those investments off again, Canon is seeing what Apple, et.al. have been doing with production and are now understanding why there's a key advantage to that when demand shifts. Ironically, this is where we started, as many of the camera companies outsourced their compact lines to various vendors (e.g. Sanyo) in the early digital days. I call this facfree system as "toe in the water." Look for more toes to follow Canon's. 

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REMEMBER

SETUP > Copyright information > Copyright > Copyright 2026 Your Name

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FAILURE TO LAUNCH
The Holiday "Quiet"

As you'd expect, since my last news/views compilation we haven't had a major camera launch of any kind. Sony was last to the podium with the A7 Mark V on December 2nd, which is about as late as we ever see new cameras in a year (Leica's SL2-S on December 10th, 2020 was the most recent significant late launch). 

Even November—e.g. Canon's launch of the R6 Mark III this year—is considered late. I'm pretty sure neither Canon nor Sony were saying to themselves all along "let's target the last two months of the year." 

The issue is shelf stocking. Traditionally dealers use up all their cash earlier in the fall building inventory for holiday buying season. By early November, their shelves (and back rooms) are full of what they need to sell in the last six weeks of the year in order to stay in business. Committing more cash or diverting sales from what they already paid for is counterproductive for them. So when your dealer sold you a R6 Mark III or A7 Mark V during the holidays, they may have been smiling on the outside, but they were probably grimacing internally ("Can I interest you in a lens to go with that?").

I'm aware of at least two products that apparently were initially going to launch in Nov/Dec, but either because of production delays or second thoughts, have now moved into 2026. 

From a product management standpoint, you really want rumors to fly in September for an October official launch. Why? Because by launching in October you have "buzz" going into the holiday shopping seasons, and by doing the things necessary to get dealers ready September is early enough to get them adjusting their buying. Any later than that and you risk hurting those that sell your product. 

What Sony's December launch tells me is that Sony is running a little scared. Or is behind in their scheduling. Or both. Launching the A7 Mark V in December instead of January is an attempt to protect sales from going to the newer Canons and Nikons (and maybe even Panasonics). The A7 Mark IV, after all, was over four years old (and was launched in the more correct October window ;~). Indeed, what else really was new from Sony this year? (RX1R III and FX2). So without the new A7 it would look like they were standing in place against the competition in the key mid-level category. 

However, I doubt that launching in December sold them any more A7 Mark Vs than they would have had they simply waited until the CES/Imaging shows in January. Sony was trading "make news first" (January 2026) for "make news late" (December 2025). To me, that's a sign that Sony is feeling the pressure now from the others, and their market self-esteem is slipping.

Canon's situation seems a little different. In the past they've been pretty solid in keeping to no later than a September/October launch window, so I'd guess that the R6 Mark III had some slight hiccup in getting produced that pushed it a month back from where Canon would have liked it to be.

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RUMORS
What's Coming?

The last few launches of last year of course bring us to what's going to happen this year?

In terms of shows that you might want to make a splash at, CES starts January 6th, Imaging USA starts January 11th, CP+ starts February 26th, and WPPI begins March 1st. I'm not hearing much that would indicate significant January launches (other than perhaps lenses, of which several are pending). We also have the Winter Olympics opening on February 6th. All this makes the late January, early February time frame the right one to be popping significant major camera announcements into, though I expect some of those might be Development Announcements.

I'm betting that this year's CP+ in Japan will be the real focus for the next set of significant launches. First of all, CP+ had a really successful 2025 show and is already set up to be bigger and splashier this year. It's a home show, which makes announcements a little more in control of corporate. And it's the right timing to set up the next fiscal year for all the companies (except Canon, which uses calendar year). Unfortunately, my schedule keeps me from attending CP+ this year, and the couple of key meetings I've already got scheduled with camera company executives don't happen until April, so I'll be reporting from afar for most of the early year launches. 

No, I'm not going to speak to specific products. I do know about three or four that are in the upcoming launch queue, but I'm going to respect my confidences here. Moreover, it's somewhat easy to product the "what" (but not the exact "when") for existing lineups. For instance, two of the oldest cameras in Canon's RF lineup now are the R7 and R10, for Nikon it's the Z30, while for Sony it's most of the APS-C lineup other than the EV's. (Hmm. All APS-C. Are we going to have a crop sensor year ahead?) Look closer and you can find cameras less than three years old that could use a little modest refreshing. 

But the big anticipation is really about "new generation." For Canon, the question is how will future R1/R3 changes impact the rest of the lineup, and when will those come? For Nikon, everyone on the planet seems to know that EXPEED8 and the Z9II generation must be about to kick off. Sony has the A9 Mark III (global shutter) and A1 II (more AI and tuning) having iterated recently, so it's unclear if we're near anything new from them. Partially stacking the image sensor (Nikon, Panasonic, Sony) seems to be a thing now, and we're likely to soon see piggy-backing (e.g. memory mounted on ASIC), so there are plenty of cameras that might benefit from a stack or two.

Here's my problem: cameras are getting much more complex while making only small incremental image gains. Personally, I'm all for any gains and have always lived at the far front edge of tech, but I'm beginning to wonder if that's really going to amount to anything for the majority of the user base. What can't a Canon R6 Mark III, Nikon Z5II/Z6III, or Sony A7 Mark V do for you? Are you really printing larger than 20"? Do you really need >11 stops dynamic range? What do you need more than 15/20 fps for? 

To me, the thing that's missing is the compact camera that's about at the level of those mid-range mirrorless cameras. In other words, the Canon PowerShot R, the Nikon Coolpix Z, and the Sony Cyber-shot A. Not R, Z, or A in terms of lens mount, because there wouldn't be one, but R, Z, and A in terms of imaging basics, something in the 24mp stacked range with a solid lens up front and a state-of-the-art ASIC behind. Some of you will say "Sony RX1RIII," but no, that's a camera positioned well out of the league of what people actually want. We're talking things that should live in the US$1000-2000 range, where only Fujifilm and Ricoh currently live. 

Which brings me to "surprises." If any year needs a couple of surprise cameras, it's going to be 2026. Fujifilm, Nikon, OMDS, and Panasonic all need one if they want to make clear inroads on Canony. At the moment, I'm not aware of any such upcoming surprises, but of course, that's why they'd be a surprise! 

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ANALYSIS
Who Needs What?

I didn't do a year-end report card for the camera companies this year, but everyone except OMDS got a passing grade and is moving on to the next level. 

That doesn't, however, mean that everyone is well prepared for that level.

• Canon — Canon’s lineup still seems a little unsettled and random to me. They’re trying to achieve "everything for everyone”, but I believe that comes at the expense of lineup confusion. It’s not that Canon needs any specific new camera, it’s that Canon needs marketing that clearly tells people which product is for them. My fear is that they just keep making confusing product statements. The presumed R7 Mark II could be one of those, as it may say “don’t buy an R1 or R3.” 
• Fujifilm — Fujifilm made some big moves in 2019 and 2022 (100mp GFX and 40mp APS-C, respectively, plus a Nikon D500 replacement candidate in the stacked X-H2s with the latter). The question I have is “so what have you done lately?” The answer, of course, is that they used those big moves to start re-aligning all their product line. That’s pretty much done now, so the question really is where does Fujifilm go next? I don’t know, but 2026 (or no later than 2027) really needs to contain the next big Fujifilm move. My concern is that they’re spreading a modest sized engineering team across a lot of models now, and some of those didn’t quite resonate the way their big moves have (e.g. X half, GFX100RF). The X-Pro4 or some other clear technology statement is what they really need next.
• Nikon — Nikon just did something fairly remarkable: via product updates and new launches, they've built out an entire generation of cameras that are really complementary with all having (mostly) the same feature/function sets (Z50II, Zf, ZR, Z5II, Z6III, Z8, Z9). Conspicuously absent in that list are Z30 and Z7II, so it's not difficult to say that it's time to complete the puzzle (e.g. Z30II and some form of Z7III). That Z30II will almost certainly show up, though probably as a ZRc, though, given the ZR's success. So what Nikon actually needs that none of us yet have clear information on are the Z7II replacement and the launch of the next generation of cameras through a pro body upgrade (e.g. Z9II). The good news is that, from everything I can see and what I'm told that I can't repeat, Nikon has a good handle on all of the above. Which leads me to this: the thing that no one is talking about at the moment is "the next surprise." I'm certain there will be one. Nikon is a company that, while maintaining their primary product line, has launched wave after wave of surprises over the years (Coolpix, Nikon1, KeyMission, and even the RED acquisition). So what do they have in their pocket for the next one?
• OMDS — This one is simple: OMDS needs to prove that they can launch something that didn't originate in Olympus (or Sigma ;~). This spin-out is trending towards becoming the next Pentax, a company that mildly iterates on what's been done and not much else. The fact that OMDS is still losing money—they call this "increased their profitability," which is a euphemism for "lost less money”—is a bit of a problem. I've written it for some time: they should have made an m4/3 Tough. They need that unique product that says "only we're doing this." Instead, what they've been saying since the spin out is "we're still doing that.” Okay, we get it, you can still produce what you’ve produced; tell us what’s next.
• Panasonic — I'm looking forward to meeting with Panasonic execs at NAB this year, because I'll be asking them the same question I asked them at NAB in 2016: "how do all these pieces fit together coherently?” Canon’s answer is one mount for everything. Nikon’s answer is one mount for everything. Sony’s answer is one mount for everything. Panasonic’s answer has been we've got a lot of mounts. I don’t think that flies long term. Even just two mounts is a tough sell these days. I really need a better answer from Panasonic, but am not expecting one. 
• Sony — Sony is now in Nikon’s old position (#2 in the ILC market). But that’s under pressure from both sides, just as Nikon was in the teens. Canon just wants to sell to everyone, and is now back in the number one position with their historical near-50% share. Nikon (and to a lesser degree Fujifilm) are nibbling their way upwards. Where’s all that market share growth coming from? Sony’s loss of share. There’s nothing really wrong with any of Sony’s current offerings—though the APS-C gear is getting long-in-tooth—but it feels like “only Sony can do this” is no longer a supportable statement. The fact that Sony is keeping so much of their older generations on the market also seems to tell me that they don’t have a clear idea of how to compete in the lower cost models without just milking the cows until they are dry. While some might say that they want to see Sony’s next generation technology, I say the opposite: I’d like to see Sony show how they are going to compete in the US$700-2000 market with new products, and products using some of their best technologies, not simply stamping out more of the old.

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COMMENTARY
Second Warning

Back on November 16th I warned about prices rising on storage. I hope you bought what drives, SSDs, and cards you needed during the holiday rush. Because what's happening behind the scenes right now presages both shortages and price increases moving forward. 

In particular, primary memory supply is seeing huge cost changes as two of the key semiconductor suppliers (SK Hynix and Micron) are directing much (most?) of their production towards AI uses and data centers. Indeed, Micron is shutting down Crucial, their consumer wing, in February. That means no more consumer-available NVMe, SSD, or DDR5 from one of the better sources. Behind the scenes, I'm now hearing from panicking execs at storage companies on what their future parts supplies and costs look like. 

The good news is that there's still a strong existing stock on dealer shelves at the moment, some of it even with some discounts still available. I just don't know what's going to happen when that inventory runs out and the card/SSD/drive/memory suppliers have to build new product. It's possible that some will think this is a temporary situation and eat some of the costs to keep market share, but I suspect that everyone's in the same position and thinking they'll need to start raising prices. 

Of course, tech goes through waves. Right now we’re riding the AI wave and that’s causing the memory demand that’s impacting supply. But a burst of the AI bubble could produce the opposite as companies look to offload memory to other non-AI buyers. Still, short term the news is not looking good. So if you’re in the market for memory, SSDs, or cards, buying now is likely to be better than waiting.

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TIP
SSDs seem like a “safe” way to permanently store data. People believe they’re less likely to fail than a spinning hard drive after long storage. That’s simply not true. Both spinning drives and solid state drives have issues with long-term cold storage (cold storage being where the drive is disconnected from the computer and power and stored somewhere). 

With SSDs the problem is cell errors. Cells can have get error correction issues or just weaken over time. One small scale experiment showed that some SSDs can show signs of corruption after two years of cold storage. 

If you’re going to store image data on SSDs, you should periodically power them up. Good solid-state storage has self checks and load rebalancing as it sees errors arise, but they need to be powered to do that. Something that parses all the files on a stored drive should trigger those built-in corrections. But if you want to be fully secure, you should create checksums for all files and folders and verify that they have not changed for your important files. That’s a massive task, even with good software. 

Don’t panic. Nothing’s new here. Just like paper degrades over time in storage, so do most other forms of storing information. They all have weak points. My method of dealing with this is to fairly aggressively move data from one medium to another over time. For instance, my archived files get updated to new media about once every two years. It’s a big, full day job doing that and making sure I’m not just copying corrupted files, but since I started doing that I haven’t yet (knock wood) lost anything.

Mac users can create checksums using EagleFiler, and use those for verification by the program. There are other options for that, but that’s the one I’ve used in the past.

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Wrapping Up

And in other news

▶︎ No longer up in the air. Beginning December 23, 2025, DJI and all other foreign-made drones were effectively banned by the FCC. Imports of new foreign drones (and parts for them) will be completely halted, though any currently still on dealers' shelves can be sold, while ones already owned can still be used. The reason for the ban? "Unacceptable security risk."

Of course, your local police, rescue, and press may continue to use their DJI and other drones already in place, so unfortunately what we have here is just another postering of Security Theater by the US government. Moreover, the current government doesn't seem to understand how things actually work. Apparently, this ban will help lead to a rise of "American drone dominance." Not without batteries made in China, it won't. Or other parts, as well. 

Protecting citizens from the "fear something we imagine could happen" is quite a bit different than protecting them from "things that are happening." Congress asked the government to do a security audit on DJI and others to empirically determine whether or not there were security threats built into these products (e.g. could be controlled via a backdoor from overseas, could report sensitive information, etc.).  This bipartisan Congressional action, like many others, was ignored. The document giving authority to the ban is effectively an Executive Order by the White House. 

I guess it's time to for someone to write a book entitled First They Came for Our Drones. 

Yes, this is political. However it's important to understand that sometimes politics spills over into things like the photography business this site covers. From the beginning, drones have been controversial because on one side they allow individual liberties to be pursued while on the other hand they can disrespect privacy and cause safety issues. There was never any doubt that we'd have to come up with policies that balanced those things. However, we are way out of balance now. Moreover, my local police are asking what they're going to do when their current drone breaks, so "security" has more than one side to it, folks. 

▶︎ Some ZR LUTing. As I work on my review of the Nikon ZR, I became aware of some third-party LUT tools, specifically Cinema Tools ZR Utility LUT, which has several really useful exposure tools built into it, but their full LUT pack for the R3D NE files the ZR can create. Besides a straight 709 LUT (good for broadcast material), it also includes an Arri Alexa matching LUT, which is very Hollywood. There’s more to the package than that, but the two LUT packages Cinema Tools makes have proven to be very useful getting the best video out of the ZR that I can.

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As you can see, this weekly or bi-weekly "newsletter" style for News/Views can be quite elaborate and lengthy. But by putting everything in one spot less often, in a single format, it saves me time and allows me to spend more time on the commentary than the news itself, which you can get pretty much anywhere.

byThom MAX is still coming, but for the time being I'll be doing news this way. I'll have more about byThom Max when I kick it off later in 2026. In the meantime, if you're interested in subscribing, click here to receive updates.