LEDE ON
The camera makers must hate the photo press. Specifically, the American camera company subsidiaries must really dislike the “any news is worth reporting” rumors sites that will scrape virtually any post anywhere made by anyone if it looks like news.
This past week we had another example of the “discontinued/unavailable” saga that isn’t always what it seems. Basically, here’s how it typically goes: a Japanese company in Japan sends out an advisory to Japanese dealers that some product will be unavailable to order. On ocassion, the company will also send out a local-to-Japan news release saying the same. Here’s the thing that makes for the subsidiary hate: the item very well may be and usually is still available in other subsidiaries (Americas, Europe, Asia, et.al.). Often, these notices are quickly done and use boilerplate language, which doesn’t help.
Here in the US we see these “not available” announcements spread like a wildfire in high winds via the Interwebs, yet they very rarely apply to us. They're reported because “it’s news.” Sure, news that Japan is still doing the thing that Japan has always done: severely micromanaging production and where it is distributed. Ironically, the Japanese companies often ship less product to their own country, as they see profit potential higher elsewhere.
So, if you want a Nikon 600mm f/6.3 VR S lens just order it. Unless you’re in Japan.
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News
NoPro Now Possible
GoPro released it’s second quarter financial results, and basically it can be interpreted thusly: without someone coming in to buy and take over the company, we’re toast.
Revenue down 31%, units down 38%, cash on hand down 45% and now far less than a quarter’s worth of their usual quarterly operating expenses. All terrible numbers considering they launched the new Mission1 in the quarter. Meanwhile, GoPro carries US$87.2m in principal debt, a significant part of which falls due near year end. I’d say that the debt situation is actually the real nail in the coffin. Normally you’d see private capital looking to swoop in and reorganize the company, and do so with new debt. But the current numbers preclude that without bankruptcy to first restructure the debt.
Another interesting aspect showed up in this quarter’s numbers: direct online sales were up 13%, while subscription revenue was up 11%. It was the retail outlet drop of -48% that was the biggest issue. GoPro now has the Nikon KeyMission problem: it costs money to stock the retail channel, particularly when you’re using Big Box so heavily. That money sucks away at your profit margin, and when sales slump, it makes the business untenable. Which is why Nikon waltzed into the action camera business and waltzed right out the door soon after.
The online and subscription numbers suggest that a far, far smaller GoPro is probably still viable. Something closer to US$50m a quarter in sales (which would be less than one-quarter their peak in 2021). But then that debt just looks huge, as you can’t pay it down fast enough at that sales volume.
The prediction market is now something where you can place bets. Here’s where my money would go if I were to bet (disclosure: I won’t): bankruptcy followed by a buyout by someone such as Logitech, who would value the IP and who has the distribution system that could absorb the products (further disclosure: we sold the very profitable QuickCam business I created to Logitech).
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Re-News
Maybe Sony Isn’t Moving Faster
After being the only maker making any summer camera announcements, it turns out that one of those new products will now have delayed delivery. The Sony FX5, originally scheduled for an August release, has been pushed back to a mid-September first chum. I haven’t seen an official explanation for this, only heard about it second-hand through non-official sources.
We could speculate about the why—parts shortage, higher-than-expected initial orders, production issue—but that doesn’t really matter as long as this ends up just a one-month postponement. It does dilute the PR benefits a bit, as now the actual delivery will likely fall in a period where other products are being announced
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Advice
Two Black Holes Are Colliding
It’s normally about this time of year that I start getting the “should I buy now or wait until the holiday season for specials?” emails. In most years, buying in September or October typically is not something I recommend, as the camera makers like to push volume into the holiday season, and that’s where you start seeing the good discounts. This year, however, is hinting that it might be different.
The two black holes of the headline are Price and Availability. They are related. For instance, Price is both due to constantly changing tariffs but also due to the fact that most of the chips used in a camera—but particularly the memory chips—are going up in price. Availability of memory is currently on a low-to-none curve for camera makers, and other key parts are still, for some reason, in short supply too. The camera market is like a little mouse trying to stay out of the way of mammoth dinosaurs causing chaos and destruction everywhere. AI is the Godzilla that’s attacking Tokyo consumer electronics.
The goto strategy in Tokyo when under delivery pressures is to emphasize high end products. What memory and parts they do get will tend to first go into the highest-priced, highest-margin products. Discounts to move volume also tend to disappear under this strategy. More often than not you see bundling strategies, as in camera+lens discounts, becoming the new incentive norm.
The greatest danger is in the under US$2000 market. You might have noticed that the under US$1000 full frame options have basically disappeared. The Canon RP is on its last gasp at US$1000 clearance. Nikon is currently pushing its remaining Z5’s at about US$150 above where they once sat. I don’t know how long either will last before they go away completely. They might not make it to Christmas, at which point full frame mirrorless then starts 50% higher, at about US$1500.
Meanwhile, crop sensor has been creeping up towards US$1000 (with many already over that mark). It wasn’t that long ago that Nikon said you needed to be able to sell a camera (then DSLR) at US$399 to remain competitive in the entry market. Not so much today, as entry seems to be somewhere in the US$600 or US$700 range, and then only on discount.
Which brings me to this: discounting is the usual method of increasing holiday shopping volume. But what happens when the camera makers don’t have volume to sell? We very well may find out this year. The good news on that front is that when I look at the inventory levels from most makers’ recent financials, there’s been a small creep upwards. It’s possible that they have enough parts and finished products to make it through to the new year, but then the question becomes: how do they survive the first quarter of 2027?
I wouldn’t put it out the question that we see a fall price increase from some or many makers, allowing them to appear to discount during the holidays. One problem, however, is that other things that you might need in addition to a new camera, such as new memory cards or more storage for your computer, are also increasing in price. The customer trying to put together a gift system in December 2026 is going to find they need more sheckles than last year.
For most of this site’s history I’ve been pretty consistent: only buy what you need. This year that advice is doubled down and augmented with “if you believe you need something in the next few months, you might want to consider getting it now if you can afford it.” I don’t see photography getting less expensive any time soon (and that includes using smartphones). I recognize the current situation from past tech cycles: we’re not in the "ramp up production to lower costs" phase. We’re in a "if you ramp up production, your costs will go up" phase.
One pernicious aspect of capitalism and free markets is that they require growth to remain healthy. From a corporate viewpoint, that means growth in sales and profits, which drives shareholder value when done right. The problem for the camera industry right now is that there isn’t a clear way to do that in a sustained manner when other industries are dominating and disrupting their supply chain. I expect the result to be that how much you pay will be the way the companies have to deal with finding growth. If that doesn’t happen this holiday season, it certainly will be happening next year.
Your choice as a consumer is going to come down to “buy now” or “save up more for buying later.”