Continuing on the PMA anticipation thread (see the Fujifilm speculation, now moved to Archived News), NikonUSA's Steve Heiner was quoted by CNet as saying "I think you'll see other FX products. It's a sensor size we're committed to." That plus other partial quotes in the story have generated the usual Internet speculation buzz, and as often happens, that buzz quickly spiraled out of control.
One persistent speculation that resulted from that story is that Nikon will announce a D300-sized FX body at PMA early next year. Let me nip that one in the bud. Doubtful. Very doubtful. Indeed, it's going to take monumental efforts on Nikon's part to introduce any new DSLR in the next few months, even if it's something as simple as a D80x. Why? Because Nikon just doesn't have the organizational bandwidth to announce, produce, QC, market, and promote more than a couple of DSLRs at a time. The D3 and D300 will still be in short supply come PMA, and still be in the early stages of marketing worldwide. You can't afford to divert the staff attention from that. Dealers can't stand too much churn of products, either.
Moreover, three serious and pro-level models in a row from Nikon would break precedence and potentially hurt the part of the lineup that has been their most successful, the low end DSLR. I think that we'll see a refresh at the low-end before we see another FX model. If I had to guess, the D40x and D80 will see modest updates after PMA and the next shocking announcement from Nikon will come much later when the missing high-end Nikon suddenly becomes a reality. Yes, folks, the D3 is a D3 and not a D3h because there will be no D3x. It'll be better than that. And PMA 2009 seems the most likely timeframe for that, though Photokina 2008 is an outside contender.
So where does a D300FX fit into that announcement scheme? Good question. If I'm right, Nikon is going to pretty much max out its production and organizational capability in 2008, so I personally can't see them putting another potentially popular FX product into the mix that fast (remember, you also can't make FX sensors as fast as you can DX--your yields per wafer are almost an order of magnitude lower and you have a fixed capacity of wafers per day at your fab). 2009 seems right. And yes, the smaller FX body has been in design for awhile now and prototyped. That part of the speculation is true.
Another out-of-control speculation on the Web forums has to do with "affordability" of a low-end FX entry from Nikon. Canon's current fire-sale pricing of the 5D has Nikon users salivating at the prospect of FX models under US$2000. Again, not likely to happen, especially in the time frame people are talking about. It just doesn't make economic sense for Nikon to price that low, as it would be leaving big money on the table. Given Nikon's past pricing, something like US$2999 or US$3499 seems more likely for a low-end FX body in early 2009. US$2499 would be aggressive. Anything under that would trigger a price war that no side would benefit from.
Also, note that it won't quite be as small or as light as a D300, at least if the same production values are used (magnesium chassis, weather sealing, etc.). As the D3 is to the D2x, a D300FX would be to the D300. A bit more top heavy and a bit more weight.
Now let's get back to those Heiner quotes. "I think you'll see..." The key word there is "think." Many people are mis-quoting the article and saying Nikon is "about to launch" other FX products. Certainly I believe that they are planning other FX products, but Heiner didn't exactly say that, nor is he in a perfect position as a senior manager at NikonUSA to know what Nikon's exact future plans are (note that Heiner isn't at Nikon Japan, where the actual design and decision making is done). There's been some briefing of futures from Nikon corporate, but no exact details, to my knowledge.
Hot on the heels of the D3 and D300 announcements (remember, as I write this, neither camera has actually shipped), Nikon DSLR fans are a bit over-exuberant at the moment. Personally, I'm eagerly awaiting my D3, so please let me enjoy that delivery experience before cranking up the hype on a non-yet-announced product that probably won't be announced for some time.