it's been slow in terms of news for the last couple of weeks, so that leads to idle speculation. With PMA 2008 just around the corner, once again people are anticipating cameras. I'll keep my remarks this morning to Fujifilm only, as I've been thinking about them a lot as I try to put the finishing touches on my S5 Pro eBook (please don't ask; the answer is "soon" ;~).
First, Fujifilm has once again affirmed that they aren't interested in launching a low cost DSLR. After all, they have a set of DSLR-like compacts (S5700, S6000, S8000, S9100, and IS-1). An entry DSLR would compete with those models in ways that might render the compacts--or at least some of them--superfluous. With Nikon having dropped the 8800-type of compact (as have others), Fujifilm may feel that they can be competitive in this sub-class of camera, and thus don't want to risk self-cannibalization. They're not exactly the big fish in the big pond, after all, so being a big fish in the smaller pond must have appeal.
Recently, Fujifilm also announced a lot of shuffling of production and assets in the digital camera world. Most of the cameras have already been out-sourced to the China plant in Suzhou, and even sensor wafer production has been subcontracted to Toshiba. Fortunately, these seem mostly like cost-cutting issues, not an abandonment of digital imaging. Specifically, Fujifilm says "there will be further acceleration in the development of digital cameras with distinctive features..." Still, the sensor design team has been quiet for some time now, and product rumors for all types of camera models from Fujifilm have slowed to a trickle. I don't think their reorganization process is pain free.
Which brings us to the main topic readers of this site are interested in: the S5 Pro and future Fujifilm DSLRs. Let me start by saying this: the S5 Pro is the only DSLR currently on the market that has what I'd call exposure latitude. Even with JPEGs you have considerable recovery ability for overexposure that you don't have with other DSLRs (S5 Pro raw files are wickedly good in this respect; I've managed three stop recovery in some situations, as long as I haven't completely blown out more than one channel). The dual photosite nature of the S5 Pro makes it an interesting alternative for photographers challenged by DR.
So the question of the moment is this: will there be an S5 Pro successor, and if so, what will it be like? Let's start with the good news: since Nikon essentially made the D300 without doing any tangible modifications to the D200 body, I'd have to guess that Fujifilm could easily continue to use that body as a platform for future DSLRs, reducing their engineering burden. That's the good news. The bad news is that Nikon is slowly eroding the benefits that the SuperCCD had: the D300 appears to match or exceed the S5 Pro in noise handling, for instance, yet doubles the pixels. Fujifilm's sensor designers have their work cut out for them to leap frog ahead again, yet there's been nary a peep out of them lately. One wonders if their three-layer sensor isn't making the progress towards release they expected.
So why am I even speculating about a new Fujifilm DSLR? Because Fujifilm has been like clockwork: every two years a new DSLR has been announced (though not necessarily shipped). The S1 in 2000, S2 in 2002, S3 in 2004, and S5 in 2006. This, coupled with Fujifilm's tendency to announce around trade shows means that the next DSLR would be expected either at PMA in late January, or at Photokina in September. My guess? Fujifilm won't have a new DSLR at PMA, and might not have one fully ready at Photokina.
Now for one of Thom's patented wild guesses: the next Fujifilm DSLR SuperCCD SR will be a hybrid. The large photosites will be three-layer (RGB) but the small photosites will be Bayer filtered! This solves multiple problems simultaneously, including pixel count without downsizing the photosite sizes. So: the next S-Pro will be 6mp still, but with Foveon-like resolving ability and S5 Pro-like dynamic range, all in a D300 body. Would that be enough to stay competitive in the wedding and studio markets where Fujifilm DSLRs are popular? You tell me. Better yet, tell Fujifilm ;~).