Nikon announced it's full year results today. Remember, Nikon's fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31. Some numbers of interest to readers of this site:
| Year End 3/2007 | Year End 3/2008 | 3/2009 (est) | |
| Imaging Sales | 449b yen | 586b yen | 620b yen |
| Imaging Income | 45.7b yen | 84b yen | 80b yen |
| Imaging R&D | 18.3b yen | 19.9b yen | NA |
| DSLR units | 2,090k | 3,090k | 3,300k |
| Coolpix units | 5,920k | 8,550k | 9,300k |
| Lens units | 2,640k | 4,450k | 4,700k |
Now let's read the tea leaves. First, note that Nikon's DSLR growth in the past year far outstripped that of the market (i.e., they gained market share) but they are predicting very mild unit growth in the coming fiscal year. The overall profit estimates are also slightly down. Either Nikon thinks the DSLR rush is over, that competition will be much more intense, that the global economy is stalled, or that its sales are shifting away from low-end units and high volumes (or some combination of the above). This is the most bearish Nikon has been in future estimates in recent years and makes me wonder about where the D80 replacement, high resolution FX body, and prosumer FX body fit in. Even the lens sales numbers, which skyrocketed last year, have only a modest increase predicted. Indeed, the basic overall formula in the Imaging Division numbers seems to be <10% increase in unit volume and a 10% drop in profit.
I should also point out that Nikon's estimated exchange rate for the coming year is 100 yen to the dollar (down from 114 last year; the Euro is pegged at 155, down from 162). As I write this, the current rate is somewhere around 104. I still suspect some price increases when Nikon's forecast resolves into reality.