PMA is six weeks away, and I'll be attending this year. I'm considering doing some sort of daily report from the show, so let me know what it is you want to hear about and what questions you want answered and I'll see what I can do.
But the interesting thing is that we haven't yet heard any believable rumors about new products to be introduced at PMA by Nikon. One would expect at least a D60 replacement, the usual half dozen biannual Coolpix, and a smattering of lenses. Nothing shockingly exciting in that list. I'll add one thing I fully expect: at least one new flash, probably a SB-900-inspired replacement for the SB-600 and, if a D60 replacement does show up, probably a replacement for the SB-400, too. Still, not very exciting.
The question on everyone's mind is the potential for a D300 replacement. Six months ago, I would have said, no, PMA is too soon for a D400. Today, I'm not so sure. Nikon certainly has motivation to introduce new DSLRs sooner rather than later. Why? Because of the currency changes. It's easier to mask currency-caused price increases if you have a state-of-the-art product to change price points with. That may explain the D3x price point, for example. Basically, Nikon needs to get the D300 model back up to the US$1799 price point and increase that price point by as close to 25-30% as possible to make up for the currency losses.
So a 14 or 15mp D400 with a few new wrinkles (1080i 24fps video anyone?) and superb image quality at somewhere from US$1999 to US$2299 would go a long way to shoring up a key product. But at those prices, it has to perform, and there's the conundrum: has their been enough time passed to have created a true D300-beater? Like the D3x is to the D3, a D400 would have to have enough additional pixels and better image quality at the base ISO to clearly hurdle over the D300 while re-establishing a price point. I haven't heard any specifics on the D300 replacement, so what I just wrote is informed speculation. In times of economic stress, you need to decrease your product cycle time and increase your product differentiation. That's a tall order.
Personally, if I had to place a bet, I'd say "late spring." There are three logical camera intro times: PMA, late spring, and early fall. (I should point out that this hasn't stopped Nikon from trying mid-summer and end-of-year more than once, probably due to schedule slippages.) PMA is where you stake competitive claims. If you've got the new goods that make the other companies' new goods look weak, you announce there and dominate the show talk. Buzz out of PMA can change the dealer buying and eventually the customer buying. Late spring is critical for father's day, graduation, and summer vacation sales. Early fall is critical for the ramp up to Christmas. The D400 seems like an important father's day and summer vacation camera, which is why I'd bet late spring if Nikon can pull it off.
Based upon past Nikon schedules, we really don't expect a D400 any sooner than fall, and maybe even not that early. The x00 DX models have iterated on what looks like a two-year product cycle to me. Since the D300 was introduced in August 2007 and shipped Thanksgiving week of that year, my guess would have been that the target would have been the same for a 2009 introduction of the D400: announce early fall, ship before Christmas.
But pushing that schedule up--as long as it doesn't harm the product quality--has to look really tempting to Nikon. It really would help get their product margins back in line.