Sony today announced the NEX-VG10E video camera, to be shipped in September. Why am I writing about a video camera? Because I predicted this transition when the D90 first came out: the video companies are going to eventually stifle the video-enabled DSLR.
The new video NEX uses the same lens mount as the NEX3 and NEX5 still cameras, but is a video camera all the way: video-optimized lens (28-300mm equivalent), video-optimized audio (quad capsule spatial array stereo, mic jack, plus headphone monitoring), both rear and viewfinder LCDs, AVCHD format (full 1080i at 24 Mbps bandwidth and 60 fps max). US$1999. Oh, and it takes 14mp stills.
So, you want autofocus? Check. You want video and audio control? Check. You want shallow DOF capabilities? Check. You want to use your existing lenses? Check.
Panasonic will be filling in the details on its new entry shortly, and I believe that they've moved their delivery date up to match Sony. So suddenly we face the fall with the prospect of two dedicated large frame video cameras from the majors competing with video-enabled DSLRs. All that extra work the DSLR makers have been doing "fixing" the video side of their DSLR is going to get a real challenge. If you've ever filmed a production with both a DSLR and a real video camera, you'll know what's about to happen: the minute we have competent video cameras, the urge to spend US$3000+ to convert a DSLR (Redrock, Beachtek, etc.) so that it's usable for filming is going to start to go away.
The future is this: dedicated still cameras that can do some video in a pinch, and dedicated video cameras that can do a still in a pinch. Worse still, with cellphones like the iPhone 4 and compact cameras proving that they can do competent HD video for casual situations, the need for "casual" video in DSLRs is lessened, too. I hate to sound like a worn record, but I've been warning for two years that diverting engineering resources to add video to DSLRs came at the expense of still work. We're beginning to see the impact of that poor decision, and it's only going to get worse. Imagine, instead, that a solely still camera company--Nikon comes to mind--had simply put all that engineering into a modular, programmable, communicating still camera. As the video-enabled DSLR craze starts to dry up, such a still camera would dominate the still market. Just so I'm clear, the still camera market is far bigger than the video camera market. See the problem?
The Japanese makers don't understand Apple's laser-like focus on new product definition. Apple understands the 80/20 rule. The Japanese seem to think every product needs everything. No. It needs 80% of the right things.