I've been writing about supply issues with Nikon for some time. Here's my latest predictions on what would happen if you wanted various Nikon products in the near future here in the US:
- D3000: Available now, but gone by end of year.
- D3100: Spotty availability until Thanksgiving. Availability after that depends upon demand. But I suspect that once reviews start appearing, demand will increase, so it could stay spotty through the end of the year.
- D5000: Available, but will become spotty towards Christmas.
- D90: Available now, but gone by end of year.
- D7000: If you're not already in the order queue, you might not get one before Christmas.
- D300s: Available.
- D700: Available.
- D3s: Spotty availability, and this isn't going to change any time soon.
- D3x: Available, though every now and again it gets spotty for a short time, probably because the camera is being made in batches very close to demand.
- f/1.4 lenses (24mm, 35mm, 85mm): Produced in very small batches, so when a batch arrives, they are typically available for a short time, but then they sell out and everyone waits for the next batch. The 24mm should transition to available with the next arriving batch (though there are still a few sitting on dealers shelves in the US at the moment), the others will still quickly sell out each batch.
- f/2.8 lenses (14-24mm, 24-70mm, 70-200mm): Available. Rare spotty availability, but usually quickly corrected as these lenses are mainstream production for Nikon.
- New lenses (24-120mm, 28-300mm): Should be readily available soon, if not already. Word of warning: will quickly go to spotty if Nikon introduces a new prosumer FX camera.
- Exotic telephotos: the 200mm, 300mm, 200-400mm tend to be available, with rare spotty availability that usually gets fixed quickly. The 500mm has spotty availability at best, as it appears to be selling out quickly as each newly made lens comes into the US. The 400mm is in between the 300mm and 500mm in terms of availability. The 600mm appears to only be available to NPS members, and even there it's hard to get. I know of backorders that are a year old for the 600mm.