Nikon's first quarter results (April-June 2010) have been published, and are mostly being reported as good news (yes, I'm the guy who always sees the other side of the picture).
First off, the semiconductor equipment side of Nikon recovered during the quarter. If you can say that coming close to breakeven is recovery. Still, net sales were up 48%. Nikon Precision went from delivering 10 units last year in this quarter to delivering 30 units this year. But note that implies the units are selling for less money.
Imaging's growth was a little less impressive, but still a bit surprising: about a 10% rise in sales and slightly more than that in profits. Nikon sold 1.05 million DSLRs in the quarter, 1.56m lenses, and 3.46m Coolpix models, all big changes over last year. But again, declining prices are clearly evident.
Nikon increased their estimates for the full year in pretty much every area except one: profit. They expect to sell more and profit the same. That'll be the third time I mention declining prices in this short article; sensing a trend? Surprisingly, in one document Nikon has increased their estimation of the dollar (from 90 to 91) and not surprisingly decreased their estimation of the Euro (from 120 to 110 or 112 yen per; they have both figures in their various reports so it is unclear which one is the right one; I think it's 110). Nikon appears to be betting on the dollar opposite to what I would at this point (see two stories down).
For the year, Precision plans to ship about 330 units (up from 196 last year), and just clear a profit (mostly in the second half of the year sales--they are forecasting a continued pickup in semiconductor equipment business. through the year.
Imaging has increased their sales estimates, too: 4.25m DSLRs, 6.2m lenses, and 13.5m Coolpix. However, even with these additional unit volumes Nikon is forecasting a profit slip due to...yep, you guessed it, lower price per unit, mostly due to exchange rates. But let's look at those Nikon estimates a little more closely. They expect to sell:
- 35% of all DSLRs sold worldwide.
- 31% of all lenses sold worldwide.
- 12% of all compact cameras sold worldwide.
- 15% of all cameras sold worldwide.
R&D and Capital expenses have been trending down for the last two years. Cost cutting is suggested as the primary focus for dealing with the yen appreciation problem driving lower revenue per unit.
Overall a very healthy quarter for Nikon, though not a spectacular one. None of the new information seems to indicate that there is anything imminent to ship. The first place I see where there could be any change in volume due to new products is in the October to December quarter, and even there it's not obvious that there are new DSLR or lens products driving that quarter (it seems obvious from the statements that they expect at least a couple of new Coolpix models to sell well).