I've been writing for some time now that I believe that Nikon will have a "surprise" at PMA. Now a Nikon executive on record as saying "you can expect surprise(s)."
This, of course, has set the Nikon community abuzz with speculation about what I and Hiroshi Takashima might mean.
First, note that what I mean by a surprise and what Nikon thinks is a surprise are two different things. To me, a surprise is something you think Nikon wouldn't do. I don't know what Nikon thinks a surprise is, but I wouldn't be surprised (!) to find out that it mostly means "some features or specifications" that go beyond what we've done before.
But for the sake of argument, let me list some things that would be surprises to most of the Nikon community:
- A compact-sized camera with an APS sensor. Despite the rumor that Nikon designed the Leica X1, most people still don't think that Nikon will go this route.
- Lower prices. Starting with the D3x, it seems like everything is being pushed up in price (and yes, most of this is yen appreciation, but not all). Any Nikon product that comes in lower cost than a direct competitor would be a surprise, for sure.
- A full line of FX bodies. That means D700s, D900, D3s, and D3sx at a minimum.
- Nikon sensors everywhere. A Nikon sensor in the D90 replacement and in all other models introduced during the year would be a surprise.
- Medium format. After the MX scare a year ago, and after Nikon executives downplaying medium format, any move upward would indeed be a surprise.
- More than 8 lenses announced. Let's face it, Nikon just hasn't managed to get the lens wagon on a roll (7, 7, and 6 announcements, in the last three years, in order). And most Nikon users can identify more than a dozen gaps or updates needed in the lineup. So the surprise would be that Nikon actually managed to ramp that up.
- Doing something unexpected. Like joining the m4/3 group, endorsing DNG, documenting the EXIF maker's fields, or a host of other things.
- Non-camera related. Tethered hard drives, for example.
But if what Nikon announces is just more cameras with more pixels or better high ISO capability or additional features, no, most Nikon users would say that Takashima's "surprise" didn't come to pass.
That, of course, leaves a mirrorless camera. Unfortunately for Nikon, that would not be a surprise to anyone. With Olympus and Panasonic on their second generation of mirrorless cameras and making strong inroads in market share while doing so, everyone and their brother will announce a mirrorless camera in 2010. So, to surprise, Nikon's mirrorless entry needs to be 100% unique.