Today Sony introduced the not-so-secret NEX-3C (plus a 30mm macro lens), a follow-up to the NEX-3. If you want to details, you can find them all over the net, but the 411 boils down to this: new 16mp sensor (lower power, less heat, which was a minor problem with previous NEX models), some expanded panoramic modes, a few new tweaks to the user interface that are welcome, and a slightly smaller body. Nothing sensational, just a quick rework to knock some of the rough edges off the initial NEX-3 design.
But the NEX-3C is just the first in what is going to seem like an endless series of mirrorless announcements over the next month. Next up is the Panasonic GF3, which is an LX-5 sized camera with the m4/3 lens mount. Curiously, each GF model has aimed at a lower, more mass market than the one before it. That'll be followed by the Olympus E-P3/E-PL3 announcements towards the end of the month. And bringing up the rear will be Samsung with their third generation NX announcements.
Let's put that in perspective: Panasonic, Olympus, and Samsung are introducing their third generations of mirrorless products, Sony its second, while Nikon, Pentax, and Canon are still missing in action. That MIA thing is becoming more and more of a problem, as it's becoming clearer that lens availability is one crucial component holding back mirrorless from making even further inroads on DSLRs. But that's changing, too. Panasonic and Olympus have the advantage here, with 15 lenses between them, five more coming, and some additional support from third-party makers. Samsung is up to five lenses with five more promised later this year. Sony trails with four lenses currently and four more scheduled for this year, and a now open lens mount specification that should attract third parties.
So the question becomes: when Nikon/Pentax/Canon do enter this market, how many lenses will they have? My bet: no more than three each, with more promised. But that'll look a bit weak compared to the competition, almost an inversion of the normal scheme of things, where the F-mount, EF mount, and K mount have dominated so much that it wasn't considered "safe" to pick something with another mount. (I leave out the Alpha mount here because of the many years of uncertainty that occurred with the transition from Minolta to Konica to Sony, now hopefully resolved for good.)
Lack of anything but basic kit lenses at launch will mean that Nikon/Pentax/Canon have to have something "better" up their sleeves. I suspect that Nikon and Canon believe they can just compete with "brand name." Nikon and Pentax also are rumored to have decided to go small (smaller sensor than m4/3, the current small champion in removable lens cameras). Canon, well, they're not rumored to be doing anything (though certainly there must be some panic internally that's prompted R&D).
If you haven't read my reviews of the second/first generation of mirrorless cameras, it might be time to do so. For more casual photography, I now mostly use one of these cameras as they're simply smaller and more convenient and don't give up as much image quality as traditional compact cameras do. If I were headed on vacation with my family this summer it's what I'd take, not my D5100, D7000, or heaven forbid, D3 bodies. Yes, you have to work a little harder in some situations to get the same quality of image, but not that much harder.
Meanwhile, Nikon, Pentax, and Canon have missed another Father's Day, another Graduation present, another summer of vacationers. So expect to see more Panasoni, Olympi, Samsungs and Sonys this year. Many more. The other companies appear to have missed the turnoff. Maybe they'll catch back up. Maybe they won't. But they certainly aren't leading the tour any more.