While I made some basic predictions earlier in the month, I actually think that there are more important things than individual products that we need to be watching for from Nikon in 2013. The five things I'll be looking at in 2013:
- Does Nikon do video? With both Canon and Sony having DSLR-derived but video-specific camera lines now, just having uncompressed HDMI out of the pro Nikon DSLRs is non-competitive. The video pros are starting to migrate back to video-specific cameras. Hollywood has already migrated away from the F mount.
If Nikon is to be a true imaging leader, they need to play in this game, and soon. The question is whether they're ready to or not. But frankly, if they don't come up with their first camera equivalent to Canon's C series in 2013, I think Nikon will be playing from behind, and so far behind, that it's unlikely they'll catch up.
So I look for a V1 in 2013. If it isn't there, Nikon ceded the market to Canon and Sony (and a few other non-Japanese like Blackmagic and RED, who are creatively disrupting the Japanese).
- Do the unit estimates flatten? Each quarter Nikon updates their estimated unit volume across key lines (Coolpix, interchangeable lens cameras, lenses). Even as others have been lowering their estimates in 2012, Nikon stuck with theirs, implying that Nikon expects to grow their share of the market.
The economic weather ahead isn't good. Japan and Europe, the number 3 and 2 markets for cameras, are in recession (okay, parts of Europe aren't, but overall I think we can say Europe is in recession). The US has yet to deal with its long-term fiscal issues so its economic future is hazy, too. Smartphones continue to cannibalize the low end of the camera market. Mirrorless growth seemed to stop in 2012 (though we still have two months of numbers that haven't been reported yet). In other words, the camera makers are sailing against the wind at the moment.
In the last two years Nikon has looked like a growth company compared to most of the rest of the industry. Even Coolpix sales have been expanding, despite dramatic declines in compact sales overall. If Nikon doesn't start pulling back their estimated sales numbers, it indicates that they're pursuing unit volume at all costs. That has strong implications on money left over for quality control, customer support, and service (see point 5).
- What happens with DX? 2012 was a very FX-centric year, and we currently have half the DX camera lineup beyond its expected update cycle time. Plus only 17 DX lenses in 13 years (plus only one new DX lens each year for the last three years).
Yet DX is the core of Nikon's interchangeable lens camera sales. No matter how you try to slice it, DX is the volume in that category. Even deeply discounted CX and FX cameras don't change that. Another year of neglect in the DX lineup should create massive concern to Nikon users, so I don't expect one. Still, there seem to be three potential scenarios: (a) DX entries continue to limp along with a D7000 replacement and a lens or two; (b) Nikon freshens the entire DX line and is aggressive about it like they were with FX this year; or (c) DX starts a transition of some sort, to mirrorless or SLT or something a bit different than the current DSLR. (b) is what they should do, (a) is what everyone is expecting them to do, and (c) would be unexpected.
The first opportunities for DX redemption come in the big trade shows in January and February. Last year it was the D4-D800 one-two punch, with two great f/1.8 primes wrapped around it. So we shouldn't have to wait long to get a taste of how much Nikon thinks they have to do with DX.
- Does the lens plant reopen? Okay, that's a bit snide, but something has been seriously amiss with lenses since early 2011. Consider this sequence: 7, 7, 6, 9, 2, 4. That's the number of DSLR lenses introduced in each of the last six years. Historically, 6 is a good number to expect in one year, but we only got half that in the last two years.
The DX lens dearth aside, Nikon still hasn't made good on an 80-400mm replacement, a long telephoto with modest aperture, PC-E lenses that orient both directions (plus a 17mm to match Canon), a 24-70mm with VR, replacements at the 105/135mm mark, or anything that approaches a pancake.
Nikon's lens releases in the past five years have been basically: (a) f/1.4 and f/1.8 prime updates (not complete); (b) DX macro lenses; (c) redesigns and extensions of basic zooms; (d) the new f/4 zoom set; and (e) the PC-E set. The only exception to those were a DX fast normal lens and a wide angle DX zoom. From that one must conclude that Nikon thought everything was basically just fine if they managed to complete the fast primes, PC-E, and f/4 sets. It wasn't, and won't be until they get a little imagination, forward thinking, and customer input into their lens planning.
So I'm looking to see if we get a "normal" year (6+ lenses) in 2013, and whether Nikon answers any user request (I'm looking at you, 80-400mm) or shows any imagination in their new new lens offerings. I've already left my sacrifice to the gods at the side of a volcano for more DX lenses; we'll see if the Nikon optics gods answer.
- Do they care about current customers? I can't begin to count the number of things that Nikon did (or didn't do) in 2012 that showed no real interest in their current customers but more interest in potential new customers. If you sell "systems," you'd better care about your current customers. After all, you probably want to sell the rest of the system to them, right?
So the one thing I'm looking most for in 2013 is any indication that Nikon understands that many of their actions and inactions have been slowly upsetting their current customer base. Denials (or simply no acknowledgment) of quality control problems. The continued use of "impact damage" as a primary response to product problems that are more likely design defects (why is it that "tight zoom" rings on 24-70mm lenses are common, but always marked up as impact damage? Does Nikon think we're all hitting our zoom rings with hammers?). Huge discounts on relatively new equipment that the faithful probably paid full price on. The list goes on and on and on.
Just once in 2013 I'd like to see Nikon do something that's not customer antagonistic but customer friendly. Just once I'd like to see Nikon do something proactive for their loyal customers rather than reactive. I actually don't get pleasure from writing about the things that Nikon has been doing to its customers in the past several years. Behind the scenes I've been trying to help Nikon users get satisfaction on repairs and problems, and sometimes have success at that. But sometimes I encounter things like this: I asked two different Nikon product managers two simple but specific questions at Photokina. Both wrote down my questions, took my card, and promised to get back to me. Three months later, neither have. If I can't get a response out of Nikon, heaven help the casual customer.
So once again in 2013 I'll be looking to see if anything changes for the better in this respect. I'm keeping my fingers crossed on this one, because ultimately I believe it's more important than the other four.