It's been a long time since I've done specific year-end predictions. This year I'm going to take a stab at some, but just for Nikon. Enjoy.
- Sales. Nikon will (barely) hit their Q3 estimated sales (Q3 for them is Oct/Nov/Dec), and mostly by heavy promotion and discounting. Basically everything will be on sale by the end of 2012, and backed with expanded coop advertising and spiffs. That's what it will take to make the numbers. Q4 (Jan/Feb/Mar) will be a tough slog, but given a few new product intros they probably will make their final projected numbers for their fiscal year.
However, I'm now predicting this: in Nikon's next fiscal year (starts in April), they will have flat unit volume, not growth. In the fiscal year after that, they will have unit volume decline.
Before some start writing that Thom's predicting the demise of Nikon, no I'm not. I'm predicting that flat sales and declining average selling price are going to make it difficult for Nikon to make a profit next year, and if that continues, they could swing to a loss position. Obviously, a company has to deal with that when it happens. Nikon currently appears to be "pre-dealing" with it by trying to cut costs everywhere they can. Long term, they'll have to do more than cut costs, I think.
- CX. It's good news/bad news here. Nikon wants to move on (J2/V2 and beyond), but the inventory still has them stuck in the past. Already Nikon is using significant spiffs (cash to salespeople) on the Nikon 1 line. I suspect they're going to have to bite the bullet and lower Nikon 1 prices permanently within six months. We'll get a J3 in summer with 14mp, and we'll get at least five new lenses (includes the three pre-announced). But...
- RX. Oh, wait, that's a Sony thing. I suspect that the Sony RX100 success will have Nikon taking the J2 and making a compact version of it before the end of 2013. Easy to do. Call it the Nikon 1 Fixed Lens option. Nikon will get antsy, however, and make a critical mistake: they'll take out raw support and maybe more, fearing that such a camera would cut into other camera sales (J2, of course, but also P7700).
- DX. February will likely see the next DX camera launch, almost certainly the D7000 replacement. The higher end specs on it will probably have some saying it's a D7000/D300s replacement, but I'm sticking with my prior prediction: there will be a D300s replacement, too. You only have to look at Nikon's sales numbers to figure out why: what other cameras can they bring to market in 2013 to even match the 2012 sales numbers, let alone have a chance to exceed them? A three model DX and three model FX lineup won't do it: they need every incremental sale they can pick up. Also, they're not going to make the D600 the only body made on that chassis, and D300s owners wouldn't be happy with a D7000 replacement that stays on the same chassis (if you look closely at my predictions, I'm predicting that they have two DSLRs on each of their four established body chassis at the end of the year, not an imbalance of one chassis over another).
My guess is that we'll see four new DX cameras in the US in 2013. First, the D5200 is a no-brainer: we didn't get it in 2012, but will get it in January at CES/PMA. That will be followed by the D7000 replacement at the next trade show (it might show up at CES/PMA, but Nikon doesn't often launch two cameras simultaneously, and there are other big trade shows in early 2013 Nikon will want a new major launch at, e.g. CP+ in Tokyo). A D300s replacement would come in August in this scenario. So what's the fourth? The D3200 replacement, which will be basically the current camera with phase detect focus on the imaging sensor, plus a few other modest changes.
DX will also get at least three new lenses in 2013, with the 16-85mm f/4 being first out the door. We'll get a poorly specified DX wide angle prime (24mm f/2.8 or something lame like that). It's also possible that we'll get the next 18-55/55-200 tweaks some time during the year, most likely with a D3200 replacement.
- FX. What, you want more? I know some are speculating that Nikon would do something with the 16mp D4 sensor just as they did with the D3/D700, but I am not predicting that they'll add any other small body FX variants any time soon. Sales are soft on the D600, and the bloom is finally off the D800, too. Why would they throw in a third small body option? It would likely be made on a D3200/D5200 chassis, too, if such a thing existed. But it would still be more expensive than the most expensive DX camera. The only FX body I think is likely to come in 2013 is a big body one. The most likely candidate is a D4x with the 36mp sensor. It's possible Nikon could go higher in pixel count given the high cost of the camera (i.e. they have more margin to recover small sensor runs from, especially if they price at US$8000 again). I'm not getting the sense that's where Nikon is going, though, even though I know they've tested higher count sensors. Also, the D800 will go away and the D800E will take its place at the US$2999 price, as Nikon tries keep average selling price up instead of trending down. So a predictable D4x and some lenses is all we'll get new for FX, I think. One of those lenses will be the long-overdue 80-400mm replacement, thankfully. With VRIII.
But here's another scenario: a D4s. Lose the XQD slot for a second CompactFlash one, a tweaked sensor, lots of small fixes/changes/additions. I regard this as unlikely, but it's not out of the question. As you'll see from my upcoming D4 review, there are enough questionable decisions on that camera design that it's not fully resonating with the pro community.
I also expect the FX log jam will seem to break. In 2011 and 2012 combined we had fewer lenses introduced than in 2010 alone. VRIII (or whatever Nikon is calling the newly tweaked system; note to Nikon: figure out how to standardize and market this please) means that redesigned 70-200mm, 300mm, 400mm, 500mm, and 600mm may be on the board. But there are plenty of known FX designs that seemed to have disappeared with the quake and flood: 16-30mm variable aperture zoom, 17mm PC-E, 28mm f/1.4, 50mm f/1.2, 80-400mm f/4-5.6, 105mm f/2. Plus the 800mm f/5.6 is an almost certainty to appear in 2013.
- Back to Sales. I think you see now why I'm predicting flat unit volume for Nikon. The channel is full of excess current and past DSLRs, so much so that we're about to have most everything on rebate and the US didn't even get the new D5200 because of all that overhanging D5100 inventory. 2013 isn't a five new DSLR year for Nikon for sure: they'll be lucky to get four new ones out in the US (3 elsewhere), and one of those will be a low volume camera.
- End of Year (2013) Interchangeable Lens Camera Lineup (new models in bold): J3, V2, D3300 (or whatever they call it), D5200, D7100 (or whatever they call it), D400, D600, D800E, D4, D4x.
The good news is that without as big an onslaught of truly new cameras and with a stable of very good existing ones, we can finally stop talking so much about equipment and spend more time talking technique. I look forward to it.
Disclosure: my past prediction accuracy has been between 50-60%. I predict that will be about the same this year, but I could be wrong about that ;~). Why do I do my predictions in November rather than at the end of the year? December 30th is too close to the first launch sequence (CES/PMA). People would accuse me of not really making predictions if I'm doing them one week in advance ;~).
As always, I intend my predictions to be provocative and produce extended discussion of the near future possibilities. To fully appreciate your gear and plan for future purchases, you must consider where we've been (historical), where we are (present), and where we're likely to go (predictions). Nikon doesn't help its customers with this by presenting even vague road maps, thus we have to debate what the tea leaves say.