In looking at responses to my D800 review, I notice one thing that a lot of them have in common: people are missing the generational shift we've just begun.
Nikon has a tendency towards clear generational shifts. Going back to the film days, the N6006, N8008, F4, N70, and N90s had clearly identifiable generational DNA, while the F5, F100, N80, N75, et. al. had a different generational DNA. While some things carried over, many key attributes (both internal and external) changed.
Carrying that forward to today, the D4/D800 launch was that of a new generation. We saw a sneak of some of the new generational DNA in the D7000 (change in metering, change in AF mode selection, for example). The D300s and D700, however, are clearly the previous generation.
That leads to the question: where are we in the generational change? In the cameras still generally available:
- New generation: D4, D800, D800E, D3200
- Transitional: D7000
- Old generation: D3100, D5100, D300s, D700, D3s, D3x
Here's the problem: when you start making statements like "I'm not going to go for a D800, I'm going to pick up a D700" or "I'm going to stay with my D300" [or D3 et. al.], you're tacitly saying the previous generation is good enough. It very well may be, but make sure that you understand that you're comparing different DNA.
The expectations are that this new generation we're in will look something like this:
- FX: D600, D800, D4, D4x
- DX: D3200, D5200, D7200, D400
We don't now if all those models will show up (the D400 and D4x are speculative), which makes trying to buy something during these generational changes all that much tougher. Nikon's been remarkably predictable on generational change, though, and the lineup I just presented covers Nikon's usual price curve from bottom to top, so it's a reasonable guess.
One problem is that there are other forces at work now. Mirrorless done right nibbles away at the low end DX space, where Nikon has most of its DSLR volume. Nikon may be forced to cannibalize and produce something that is different in that low end DX line, which might upset the fairly clear generation cues we usually get. But I'd guess that's a minimum of a year off, probably more like two or three. I expect we'll see the full iteration of the current generational lineup (again, whether that includes a D4x and D400 I don't know).
So, note which generation you're buying into and make sure you know why you're doing that. There's absolutely nothing wrong with a D700, obviously. It's a highly competent camera at a very reasonable price right now, but it's a previous generation camera that's likely to be replaced by a new generation camera soon (the rumored D600). Still, bargain hunters can pick up something that'll perform well, much like some car shoppers buy last year's models at a discount when the new ones arrive.
Just as with almost any complex product (computers, cars, etc.), there are times when everything is crystal clear, and other times when you're in the transition and things seem a little murkier. We're in the transition period for Nikon DSLRs at the moment. Come February 2013 I'll bet that everything is reasonably clear again.
One final thought: the three cameras of the new generation all push pixels: D3s->D4 was 12->16mp; D3x->D800 was 24->36mp; D3100->D3200 was 14->24mp. Nikon appears to be using the new sensor tech to drive resolution upwards. That has implications for the D5200, D7200, D400, D600, and D4x models, doesn't it?