With PMA, CES, and CP+ out of the way, the big shows where companies want to make a splash are out of the way until Photokina this fall. So the question is this: what didn't get announced? In no particular order:
- Canon DSLRs. The 5DIII, in particular, is noticeably missing from the launch frenzy. I suspect that they were trying to steer clear of Nikon's D800 announcement. It'll come soon enough.
- Nikon lenses. Did the quake really disrupt glass this much? We've had three lenses in 17 months, where Nikon's average would tend to imply we should have had nine. (I don't count the Nikon 1 lenses because they're made in China, not the main Nikon glass plant.) Beyond the fact that Nikon isn't pushing out lenses, it also isn't filling in absolutely necessary gaps in their lens lineup. Of the last 10 lenses, we got six modest refreshes and two consumer superzooms. Nikon isn't even at parity with Canon on speciality lenses, but the m4/3 crowd is proving just how bad Nikon's judgment is for DX: no 24mm equivalent, no 85mm portrait equivalent, and more missing options.
- D400. It's coming. Best guess? April announce, May ship. Even that's cutting it awful close to the D4/D800 launches. Nikon's going to be scrambling early this year to get everything that was delayed launched with some appropriate noise and efficiency.
- Capture NX3. I have no solid idea about schedule for this or what it might comprise. If Nikon themselves are doing it, they're not known for being a quick software developer. We just got a 64-bit version of NX2, after all.
- Canon mirrorless. The G1X is an interesting stop gap, but it doesn't completely plug the hole. Moreover, it won't be counted when market shares are determined in the interchangeable lens category, which could be problematic to the way people perceive Canon. They've owned interchangeable lens cameras for a long time, with a near 50% share. This is a moment of weakness for them, and others will pounce on it.
- Sony ship announcement. I was surprised that Sony didn't try to make a big deal at CP+ to re-launch the A77 and NEX-7, which got lost in the Thailand floods. They should have re-announced them and how shipping will unfold.
- Leica. Not surprisingly, as a European company they'll wait until Photokina for their big news.
- Panasonic GH3. It's coming, but not for awhile yet. Panasonic was reasonably quiet for a show on their home turf when they just had a very successful year in country. Pre-announced lenses under glass isn't a very effective presentation, IMHO.
- Samsung. The NX11 replacement is still MIA. But given Samsung's low sales numbers for their mirrorless camera (120,000 a year), I understand. Something's not quite right (marketing and sales, IMHO), and they need to fix that, not iterate a bunch of products.
Right now we're in delivery time. Canon, Fujifilm, Nikon, Olympus, and Pentax all have important already announced products they now need to get into consumers' hands. Think of it as waves. We've had the first wave of announcements for the year and those products will be washing up on our shores shortly. Another wave comes probably in April, another in July/August, and because of Photokina, one last wave in fall.