Nikon's staggered release of the D5200 for different markets has raised a few eyebrows, as Nikon previously hasn't tended to do this sort of regional roll-out of a key product. Given that a new D5200 can be had in Asia and Europe for Christmas and not in the US until post-Christmas, the delay for US shipments is certainly a head scratcher.
This has the conspiracy theorists out in full force, and here's a sampling of what they're saying:
- Nikon doesn't have enough D5200 bodies to go around. Whether it be parts availability, late manufacturing ramp up, or something else doesn't matter, there's just something that's keeping production down. Reality: the only part that would really seem to be a potential issue is the sensor, but that's a Sony sensor being shipped in a lot of products worldwide at the moment.
- The US is all about discounts. Here the theory is that the D5200 would be under immediate pressure to discount, and the US prices already tend to be the lowest. Thus, Nikon is trying to get some full-price sales first. Reality: the longer the product is delayed in the US, the less we'll pay for it ;~). The more likely there will be something else that attracts our attention that is newer.
- NikonUSA has too many D5100's in inventory and needs to sell them first. This is the end-of-life issue so many tech products face. Reality: there's probably some truth to this notion, as the D5100 just went on a stronger instant rebate, enough so that it's now priced lower than the lower-end D3200.
- Americans keep finding quality problems with new Nikon DSLRs and complain loudly about them. I love this conspiracy theory. Basically, it would mean that Web sites like this one--which regularly reports Nikon's foibles--are modifying Nikon's behavior. Unfortunately, Nikon's change in behavior here wouldn't be the proper one, if true (e.g. roll out new product in markets where the public complaints would be less visible, fix them, then roll out the fixed product in the noisy US market). Reality: unlikely. Even Nikon's strong micro-management tendencies aren't that sneaky.
- The dollar is going to drop dramatically. While dollar devaluation continues to be one of the unstated policies of the US Fed, it's actually the Euro that's most worrisome to the Japanese makers at the moment. The dollar remained in a relatively narrow range to the yen in the last year and is predicted to remain so, while the Euro has fallen in double digit levels and there are fears that it will continue. Reality: if the dollar is really going to drop against the yen, you'd normally want to get the product into the US and sold as quick as possible, not more slowly than usual.
- Nikon is punishing the US for something. Another of my favorites, as those proposing this seem not to have run a business. Right, punish your customers. That surely increases sales. Reality: punishing customers only punishes your business. Such tactics would show dysfunctional management with psychological problems, which isn't likely.
- Canon isn't exactly launching new DSLRs in the US, either, so there's no hurry. This is a derivative of #2 and #3, and maybe #1, as otherwise the market's demand for an update should be stronger than laissez fare Canon imitation. Reality: while Nikon looks at and imitates what Canon does very carefully, inaction by Canon should be looked at as an opportunity to take market share with newer products, so I deem this one not likely.
Okay, so what's the real reason? This year Nikon will have announced a record number of interchangeable lens cameras: seven (D4, D800, D3200, J2, D600, V2, D5200). The previous high for them was four. As it is, Nikon is stumbling all over themselves in trying to get their lineup refreshed. Here in the US, there are still significant inventories of D3100, D5100, J1, and V1 cameras to get rid of, and the D4, D800, D600 launches have distorted the high-end DX market, too, as some customers sense that all these FX bodies mean no more high-end DX.
In other words, the real reason is probably Nikon's continued inability to execute a marketing program that moves product across all categories, and efficiently. Inventories of older products are still there and need to be moved, but the quake/flood delayed enough products that the dearth of new cameras in 2010/2011 must now turn into a constant stream. Someone at Nikon thinks that one-at-a-time marketing is better than multiples/system marketing to deal with this.
The Nikon 1 is a good example of that. Nikon could have gone to Photokina with a "Nikon 1 gets a one year refresh" message: J2, V2, new lenses and accessories. Instead, they chose to do four different press releases over a three month period, and the actual products will appear on shelves over an even longer period. That latter bit (products coming out over a longer period) is probably propelling the former bit (one-by-one announcements).
This is not the approach I would have used, as it allows products to be evaluated one-at-a-time by the press and customers, and the Nikon 1 products all have liabilities compared to their competitors, so those weaknesses will get amplified and then repeated with each subsequent release. It would have been far stronger to make a full system statement ("we're upgrading everything and adding more") than these weak upgrade and eventual release announcements.
But DX isn't far behind the Nikon 1 in this. We have four models, two of which got their upgrades this year (well, only one in the US ;~). Again we get one-at-a-time announcements (even with lenses, or should I say "lens") spread out. Plus we have two products still awaiting announcement and only one DX lens announced in the 14 months. Weaknesses again get amplified and then repeated with each subsequent release ("where are the DX lenses?" got repeated 12 times this year because of that approach).
Only FX seems to have survived this one-at-a-time strategy, but note how many of us pointed out the sneaky most-expensive, less-expensive, least-expensive sequence. People bought D800's that probably should have bought D600's because they didn't know that a D600 was coming (hint: the lenses said it was: 28-300mm, 24-85mm, even the f/1.8 primes, but again, those all came one-at-a-time, too).
All high tech companies have issues with multiple line, multiple product introductions, and multiple product updates. Nikon, however, seems to be struggling more than they should with this. Some of it is #3, above: lingering inventories aren't allowing for clean end-of-life transitions for some of their products, making big system-type announcements more risky for them. But I'm betting that their marketing/sales system is stretched thin this year by so many announcements and so much inventory.
What's the marketing message when you have seven new bodies to launch? Right, Nikon doesn't have a strong overarching message for CX, DX, or FX, let alone for the three together. I suspect things won't get better in terms of launches until they do. Nikon's line management of interchangeable lens cameras is a good candidate for a Harvard Business School case study. A lot of you complain to me that "Nikon's financials say they're doing okay," but that misses the point: they should be dominating the camera market. It's their marketing inefficiency and lack of strong product messaging that's not allowing them to do that.