There seems to be some confusion over how well FX is or isn't doing. I've seen lots of speculation, much based upon over optimistic interpretation of a random number somewhere. Let's try to bring things back to some form of reality.
- FX is not fizzling. Full frame camera sales are increasing. Nikon almost certainly sold more FX cameras in 2012 (D4, D3x, D700, D800, and D600) than they did in 2011 (D3s, D3x, D700). It would be hard not to, especially since no new high end DX DSLR has been seen from the company since September 2010. I'm sure that Nikon considers their FX push to be at least a modest success, and the numbers support that.
- FX is not 15% of Nikon's interchangeable lens camera sales. Using cash register numbers in the US and the proportion of US sales to other regions, it probably is still around 5% through October 2012 (also see fourth bullet, below), but the D600 will change that right at the end of the year. We actually can't yet tell where FX sales will fall overall as opposed to DX because we don't have a full year of full FX product to compare against a full year of full DX product. The percentages do gyrate a bit with product introductions.
- Nikon might not have sold 250,000 D800's yet; they likely haven't made 55,000 D4's, either. Nikon announced the capacity to make 30,000 FX bodies a month out of Sendai (25k D800, 5K D4). If you believe that Nikon just continued to make D800's at full capacity all during the time when people were complaining about getting ones with focus problems, then the maximum Nikon might have made so far is likely 250k. Made is not sold, though. Given non-air shipments from the factory to subsidiaries, there can be as much as a month lag between leaving Sendai and arriving at a dealer. Check to see if your dealer has any in stock. Many do. And remember that a lot of D800's were returned to dealers and Nikon due to the left sensor focus issue. Thus, even if 250,000 were made, that doesn't mean 250,000 have been sold as some are claiming. But I'm not sure 250,000 were made.
- FX is not a majority of Nikon's interchangeable lens camera sales. From April through September, Nikon built and shipped 3.45 million interchangeable lens cameras. Of those, if Sendai built everything they could and those immediately sold (possible, since we're mostly talking about early D800 sales), only 180k were FX cameras. That's 5.2%. I've been saying 5% for FX sales for a while now. When the number actually really changes, I'll change my number ;~). Based upon Nikon's future forecasts, the number might hit 8.9% for the full fiscal year (April to April).
- FX strength alone will not help Nikon to pass Canon in interchangeable lens cameras. Canon's last projection: 9.2 million units. Nikon's last projection: 7.1 million. Granted, Canon and Nikon are off by one quarter in their fiscal years, but that's a reasonably large gap to make up, and most people are estimating that Nikon's actual FX production will be less than 1m units a year at the moment. So, for Nikon to pass Canon it will have to fall on DX to pull its share upward.
So, is FX doing well? Yes, it is (but see last paragraph, below). It's kept the Sendai factory operating at or near capacity, and Nikon has an even bigger capacity for producing FX now that they've shifted the low end production to Thailand, where they have more flexibility.
Is FX replacing DX any time soon? Nope. Not until Nikon can come up with US$600, US$900 and US$1200 FX models and produce them in Thailand at DX levels. But the problem is sensor cost. I don't believe it is possible to produce even a US$1200 list price FX camera at the moment and keep anything close to historic profit margins. Remember, a US$1200 camera will eventually come down to US$900 at retail, which implies an eventual dealer cost of about US$750. Even if an FX sensor is only US$250 fully burdened in large quantities, that doesn't leave much room for anything else. (Again, for those of you just tuning in, image sensor costs scale dramatically upwards with area: a DX sensor is probably 1/10th the cost of an FX one, and the sensor is most expensive part in virtually all DSLRs.)
Finally, I'm going to re-issue and increase my warning: if you're in the market for a Nikon FX body, wait until at least December 15th. My warning has to do with pricing. Just as early Nikon 1 adapters are now wondering why they didn't wait, those shifting from DX to FX now may face some similar pricing displeasure. Certainly not the 50%+ drops that the Nikon 1 models have made, but if you like to preserve your Franklins (US $100 bill), have some patience. While FX bodies are doing okay, it appears that the sales are soft enough that Nikon will sweeten the deals in the US soon.