Since posting the rumors I've heard regarding Sony considering dropping full-frame sensors, the Sony fan boys have proceeded to do the opposite of what Sony probably wants them to. To the fan boys it seems that the rumor must be a conspiracy on my part and unnamed others to get Sony out of the professional camera business.
Let's get a few things straight. The more competition Nikon has, the more Nikon has to perform to stay competitive. That's the way I'd like it to be. Neither I nor other Nikon users get any benefit from Sony exiting the business (and we may have gotten a loss, as it would probably mean no D3xs or D700x). Loss of a competitor in full frame allows Canon and Nikon to relax a bit and just watch what the other is doing. Pricing pressures are eased as well, so we Nikon users will be paying full price. Why would I want all that?
As I noted in the original article, Sony itself is at the heart of these rumors. My interpretation is that there are (perhaps many) within Sony that don't like that they're being pressured to drop full frame from above. Squashing the rumor, as some Sony fan boys say they want to do, is the exact opposite of what would be useful if what I've just written is even remotely true. If the rumor is true and its origin is from within Sony as I suggest, then the intention seems obvious: to get a riled up public to petition management to reconsider the impending or future decision to abandon full frame. Instead, the fan boys want to attack the messenger and ignore the rumor. Fine. Consider the messenger attacked. Now what happens if I was right? ;~)
Note that I'm not the only one who's reported this rumor. Mirrorlessrumors is reporting something similar. So there are more messengers to attack, fan boys.
I'm going to speculate a bit on what may be happening. If you get in the Wayback Machine and dial it back to Sony taking over Konica/Minolta, you may remember the executives in Sony's Imaging division saying things like they'll get a 20% market share in DSLRs within a couple of years and become number 2 in DSLR sales (exact quote from Kakagawa-san in a Sony press release: "...target for at least 20-25% of the world digicam market, and even a higher share as far as DSLRs are concerned."). Didn't happen. Not even close. Sony even went the opposite direction last year as Olympus and Panasonic broke out with their mirrorless cameras. As I pointed out when those original Sony assertions were made, the executives making them were putting their butts on the line. When you make public pronouncements like that in Japan and don't deliver, you eventually end up in a world of shame that requires punishment. Underpromise and overdeliver is the normal way things are done in Japanese management. What may be happening now is that upper management is asking Imaging to tighten their belts and show more return on investment. And I'm sure they're going to use that 20% promise against those that made it. What you're likely seeing in the rumors is an outgrowth on an internal political struggle. If pressure is coming from above to improve performance and come close to the original prognostication, where should Sony put R&D? The answer seems obvious at the moment: NEX and a revised APS lineup that embraces pixels and video. Full-frame (hasn't and) isn't going to increase Sony's market share or bottom line.
Let me go on the record here as saying that dropping full frame would be another mistake for Sony. To survive long-term as a "camera company" you need to do one of two things: go intensely niche like Leica, or participate in the full spectrum of cameras, from cellphones to professional gear. Sony, ironically, is one of the few that could actually do that (though adding the Alpha or NEX brand to the Sony-Erickssen cellphone cameras doesn't do much, does it? See, the brand as a camera company hasn't been built strong enough yet).
Finally, note one other thing. Let's say that Sony did make a decision to drop full frame today. Would that stop full-frame products from appearing tomorrow? Not at all. Cutting off R&D doesn't immediately cut off product production. The camera companies build sensors far in advance of cameras. What appears about to happen is that R&D gets directed elsewhere. That's the danger that Sony users need to fear. Because if that happens, then the full frame product line will just fizzle out. That would be a shame, as the products Sony has created are actually quite good. If you've got a closet full of Minolta lenses, you should move now to get digital full-frame cameras that can use them to their fullest. Oh, by the way, the last camera I bought was a Sony ;~).
So now how exactly is what I wrote an anti-Sony conspiracy again? I just suggested that people buy Sony full frame cameras and ask for more. Fan boys are a lot like politicians: they don't think very clearly.