I've gotten a number of questions about what I still expect from Nikon in the way of new products this year. That's partly because I've offered some contradictory information and opinions lately about bits and pieces of the puzzle, especially in my recent comments on sensors. To help, here's a mid-year update of what I expect during the remainder of 2010 (note that I'm not changing anything else that appears elsewhere on this site, like my predictions page):
- D3000 replacement. We've had almost yearly updates in the low-end DSLR, and this year's is overdue. Moreover, the D3000 didn't exactly blow anyone out of the water. So expect a video-enabled update, probably with a new sensor and more. I expect this sooner rather than later. What changed in my prediction? Nothing other than the date got pushed back.
- D90 replacement. Absolutely due for late summer or early fall announcement. This is a flagship for Nikon, so they'll do it right even if it means sliding a date back a bit. But it's coming sooner rather than later. What changed in my prediction? Nothing.
- D700 replacement. At this point I'm expecting it in late fall and with the D3s sensor. There's a much slimmer chance of a higher resolution sensor, enough for me to say I don't expect that any more. What changed in my prediction? I no longer expect a high resolution version of the D700 in this cycle. There's no sensor for it. The perfectly good D3s sensor would extend the D700 life.
- Coolpix. The basic mid-year Coolpix refresh, with no surprises. No G11 killer. What changed in my prediction? The G11 killer is no longer in it.
- Lenses. Three lenses: 85mm f/1.4G, 24-120mm f/4 (or something close to that specification), 28-300mm f/3.5-5.6. A fourth is possible: a 55-300mm replacement for the current 55-200mm. Two other lenses, the 35mm f/1.4 and any higher end long telephoto zoom seem more iffy to me for this year. What changed in my prediction? Fewer new lenses will appear than I previously thought.
That's about it (an SB-700 remains a possibility, as do a few other modest accessories). While the mirrorless camera is getting talked about, if it gets announced this year I doubt it will ship this year. We may get something behind glass at Photokina, for example, but not much more until early next year, at which time I think it'll be shipped.