The rumor mill is heating up again. At least elsewhere. Nothing I've heard recently has changed the big picture.
About that big picture: it's been posted in a couple places on my site for over six months. First, there's my 2010 Predictions, which I made in November of last year. But a simpler summary has been on my Nikon Announcements page for about the same period of time. I invite you to look at the third chart on that page very carefully, because it clearly shows the regularity with which Nikon's DSLR development proceeds.
With near 100% certainty we'll get four things between now and the end of the year:
- A D3000 replacement. The lowest DSLR model has been on about a one-year cycle for some time now. That's made even more important because the D3000 was not the success for Nikon they thought it would be. (Hint to Nikon: don't mess up the UI again, don't forget video, use the 12mp sensor, and you need more small lenses like the 35mm f/1.8G DX.) Likely timeframe: spring.
- A D90 replacement. D70->D80->D90 was on two year cycles. This summer we're another two years past the D90, thus it's time for the D90 replacement. This is a critical product for Nikon to get right, as it reflects a large portion of their user base and helps drive profits for the division. New sensor, new AF, and better video are easy enough to predict. Likely timeframe: spring through summer.
- A D700 followup. This is the wild card of the bunch, as we have no history to base development time guesses on. At times Nikon has looked like it could go one of two ways with this model: add pixels and video and create the 5DII competitor; or add the D3s sensor and parallel the D3 development. Both have surely been prototyped. I've been writing about my lens surveys recently, but hidden in that last survey was a question about what proposed cameras you'd purchase in the future. I was a bit surprised by the results: an equal number wanted a D700s (D3s sensor in D700 body) as wanted a D900 (high resolution D700). Dead Equal. As in 41.8% (D700s) versus 42.7% (D900) for those who said they'd buy a new camera. More interesting, this was by far the highest Intend to Purchase ranking of any possible existing or new Nikon DSLR in the survey. Basically, byThom site visitors want D700-type bodies, and they want more than one choice. We'll see just how conservative Nikon is. If they introduce only one variant (especially if it's the D700s), they made too conservative a call, IMHO. Likely time frame: spring through summer.
- A D3xs. The pro body pattern is very clear now. Even if it doesn't come with video, Nikon should do a D3xs. A dedicated Info and Live View button, 1.2x crop, Extended Menu banks, and BKT button customization are enough to justify an iteration, plus Nikon probably has a thing or two that wasn't ready for the D3s update they could add and push to the D3s firmware. Likely time frame: fall.
One question is whether we get more than those four. Maybe. The real question is how much priority Nikon has given to developing their mirrorless camera. My on-the-record-since-November guess is that it will be called a Coolpix, not a D####. And my guess has been that it'll show up in fall of this year, though given Sony's two mirrorless camera intros scheduled for May and Panny/Olympus' continued success with m4/3, someone should have lit a fire under that development team. Fall is "late to the game." When you're late to the game, you'd better be better or have an excellent twist.
What we shouldn't get in 2010 is a D300s or D3s replacement. Those would come in mid-2011 and should also represent big changes in design that would then be trickled out through the next four-year cycle. Likewise, I don't think a D5000 replacement is in the cards for this year, either. The D5000 market is "don't quite want to buy a D90," so it doesn't make sense to update this camera until the D90 gets its update first.
Finally, one comment about possible intro dates. Nikon has a predeliction towards announcing new cameras prior to their financial reports. That's because they give future forecasts of unit volume with those reports, and any significant change in volume in those forecasts needs to be explained. If it's due to "upcoming product announcements" the forecasts aren't really believed if the cameras aren't known. Nikon reports its year-end results on May 11th, at which time we'll get both sales numbers for the first quarter of this year plus a forecast of sales in both the current and future quarters. Without some new product deliveries before the end of May, it would be difficult for Nikon to have a successful first fiscal quarter. Interestingly, we've never before had a May product announcement in the digital era. Normally we get April announcements that preceed the year-end results meeting. Likewise, we tend to get late July and early August announcements before the August first-quarter financials and January/February announcements before the February third-quarter report.
One thing always amuses me about the constant "next DSLR" speculations, though. There will be next DSLRs. Always. Thus, you should never be asking "will there be a followup to the DXX?" Of course there will. You should be asking "when will the DXX followup come?" My answer to that question is simple: look at that third chart on my announcements page. If a followup doesn't happen on that schedule, it's BIG news, because it means that Nikon is breaking a pattern they've established and followed pretty much since the N8008/F4 decades ago. The last unexpected change in that chart came in 2008 with the D700 intro, which basically introduced a new category of camera for Nikon (prosumer FX).