The Olympus E-PL1 has made it to Best Buy (US$599 with 28-85mm equivalent lens). Technically, a few other Olympus DSLRs are carried by Best Buy, including the E-P1, but when I mean "made it to Best Buy" I mean that it showed up in the hands-on display at my local store, which is a pretty good indication that it's been "mainstreamed" and not a "special item."
Next month two Sony mirrorless (APS) cameras will be coming to your Best Buy, and word in the alley (as opposed to "on the street" ;~) says that the lower end of these will sell for less than the E-PL1, but with a 16mm (24mm equivalent) f/2.8 pancake lens. A very good choice on Sony's part, if true. Meanwhile the Samsung NX-10 is US$699 and rumors of a lower priced version coming soon are also rampant. Panasonic and Olympus have both begun lowering prices on their original m4/3 offerings, and Panasonic has announced that the upcoming G10 will be...yes, wait for it...US$599 (the new G2 will be US$799).
In other words, we're about to have a big fight for the low-end consumer DSLR amongst the newer players, with the starting price point being US$599 to US$799.
The question, of course, is where does this leave the traditional players and their mirrored cameras? The D3000, for instance, is right at the bottom of that price point (any surprise why it's being discounted heavily right now?). My guess? Big price wars are coming again at the low end of the DSLR range.
Remember, Best Buy has both a regular discount and a regular rewards program. About once a month Best Buy Rewards card members get a 10% or 12% discount coupon that usually includes cameras. Couple that with the Best Buy Rewards themselves, and there will be people walking out the door having paid far less than US$500 for a camera and lens on a regular basis. Put another way, if the regular Best Buy price is US$599, then the street price is already effectively US$539.
A lot of bean counters at the camera companies are sharpening their pencils. 1000 cameras at US$799 is the same as 1333 at US$599. Put another way, you need to sell 33% more at the lower price to come out even with where you were at the higher price (it's not 25% because the camera maker doesn't get all the dollars you pay). Basically, the same things that happened in the compact camera market have been happening in the low-end DSLR market and will probably accelerate. Nikon said a couple of years ago that it felt it had to be prepared for the US$399 DSLR. It's coming. And it's all being done without smoke and mirrors. (Sorry, couldn't resist.)