The increasing D800/D4 rumors and my commentary last week (Amateurs Need More Pixels, see below) produced a rash of emails (and posts on various forums). One thing I should reiterate: I wrote that "Nikon and Canon came to a similar conclusion," not "I believe that amateurs need more pixels."
In retrospect my thought process in that article was a bit difficult to follow, but I was trying to point out that the two biggest camera makers seem to have settled on a differentiation between the high-end pro camera and the next camera down in their lineup (which appeals more to enthusiasts, partly because of price). The headline wasn't a statement I was making, it was a deduction on my part of a statement the camera makers are about to make (and Canon has been making for awhile).
I've not changed my position on pixels. All else being equal (which isn't always the case) more pixels have some advantages over fewer. In the D3s/D3x duo, it's clear that we can pretty much take out the body in evaluating them: the body is absolutely equal (though frame rates are changed by the sensors used). It seems clear to me, though, that the sensors of the D3s and D3x aren't equal in some ways, thus, I've found less use for the advantages of the extra pixels of the D3x than I originally thought I would.
This was a surprise to me when I recently evaluated my use of the two cameras on assignments where I was carrying both: I used the D3s more than the D3x. That doesn't mean--as several of you seem to have concluded--that I didn't use the D3x at all or find it didn't have advantages in some situations. It certainly did.
The thing I was trying to address in my article was what the camera makers--specifically Nikon and Canon--had concluded about pixels versus target customer. My conclusion: they think that the amateur/enthusiast will respond more to pixels, the professional more to low-level pixel integrity. Thus, we'll get more pixels in the lower cost bodies.
Does that mean no pro will buy a 36mp body? No, it doesn't (unless of course the camera makers botched the implementation ;~).