You might have noticed that I'm not making a separate predictions article this year. Part of that is that many of the predictions for this year got pushed out to next by a quake, tsunami, and flood.
Nikon recently admitted in Japanese interviews that the big launches they had planned for August 2011 were postponed due to all the disruption of plants and supply chains. Logistically, Nikon has had to completely rework all their non-China resources and manufacturing. Not some. All.
It makes me wonder if the Nikon 1 got changed in announce date to end up where it was so that Nikon had something to announce (though I predicted a "Coolerpix" that turned out to be remarkably like the Nikon 1--but I thought it would be announced earlier than it was).
Let me back up a bit. Nikon traditionally tries to trickle SLR/DSLR camera announcements so that no more than two occur at a time. They also prefer that at least two (and preferably more) months lapse between announcements of more than two cameras. A lot of that has to do with the inefficiencies of their global subsidiary system and getting marketing and support materials prepared and distributed worldwide. The tightest period they've ever achieved was in 2008 and 2009, when they managed to launch eight DSLRs in 22 months. That came to a screeching halt in 2010 with only two. But 2011 was supposed to be another at least four-launch period (we got two: D5100, Nikon 1). Indeed, Nikon's goal for 2011 was to try to wrest away the #1 market share in interchangeable lens cameras from Canon.
Three of the five interchangeable lens cameras I predicted Nikon to launch in 2011 never appeared. Two, the D4 and D800, were postponed and should launch in early 2012. The D400 I haven't heard a peep about since the Thailand floods, and given that Nikon doesn't expect the plant to be at full capacity again until the end of March and Nikon doesn't like to announce more than two cameras in a short window...well, the D400 or whatever ends up in the gap between the D7000 and D800 will be a bit longer in appearing, I think. And yes, to answer your question, there almost certainly will be something between the D7000 and D800. The price gap of US$1200 (D7000) to US$4000 (D800 est) is way too big and could be exploited by Canon and Sony. Even if the D800 comes in at a lower price than I estimate, there would still be a large gap. Nikon needs something in the US$2000-2500 range.
Likewise, the lens situation--at least lenses that get produced in Japan--isn't easing quickly, either. One source who works for another lens company in Japan says the entire industry is still trying to recover full operating capacity. The big glass seems the hardest hit (takes longer to cure and polish, for one thing).
So it's difficult to make useful longer-range predictions at the moment: even those in the industry aren't 100% sure when things will be 100% back to normal. What I do hear is this:
- D4 and D800 are going to be announced soon (but I think separately, one in January, one in February), and probably will ship soon, too. Nikon Rumors' reports on specs of both cameras are close to what I'm hearing, so just stop by that site if you want more.
- Lenses will continue to trickle out of Nikon, rather than in one bigger announcement.
Meanwhile, the reports of other new products to be launched is getting quite large. So just a general prediction here: between January and September we're going to see an onslaught of new products. Some of this is just natural updating (7DII, 5DIII, etc.). Some is late-to-the-game (Fujifilm mirrorless, Canon large sensor compact). Some is stuff pushed back by the big events (e.g. Nikon D4 and D800, but many more products). Some is previously announced stuff finally showing up in quantity (NEX-7 high on that list). Some is new opportunity (Pentax lens module for Ricoh GXR, for example). Some is product line expansion (Olympus m4/3 DSLR-style camera, Leica mirrorless model).
In short, 2012 is going to be a very busy year product-wise. So have a happy holiday and get ready for some fast and furious action in early 2012. See 'ya then.